FiveThirtyEight.com, a leading poll aggregator that weighs and averages polls based on past performance, has information that says that early voting is going to be a game changer. Full story after the jump…
Early voting polling information on FiveThirtyEight.com here.
LEADING SITE PREDICTS OBAMA LANDSLIDE, 2:25 pm
FiveThirtyEight.com has predicted that Obama will win today’s election in an electoral vote landslide.
The site predicts the following outcome:
349 Obama -189 McCain
Obama win of popular vote by a margin of 6.1%
For the full post, click here.
Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
Early Exit Polls Favor Barack Obama
According the Huffpost, the exit polls in several major states (including Florida) favor Senator Barack Obama. Exit polls are an inexact science because they ask voters to reveal who they voted for as they leave the booth. So far, Obama voters have been ready to give their info.
The states looking good for Obama:
Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: 52 percent to 48 percent
North Carolina: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Hampshire: 57 percent to 43 percent
Nevada: 55 percent to 45 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent to 42 percent
Ohio: 54 percent to 45 percent
Wisconsin: 58 percent to 42 percent
Indiana: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Mexico: 56 percent to 43 percent
Minnesota: 60 percent to 39 percent
Michigan: 60 percent to 39 percent
The states where McCain is leading in exit polls:
Georgia: 51 percent to 47 percent
West Virginia: 45 percent to 55 percent
Again, as a point of caution, here is what Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said about exit polls in an interview today with the Huffington Post: “The biggest problem with exit polls is… we do know that young voters are much more likely to do an exit survey and seniors are much less likely to do an exit poll,” he said. “So exit polls are heavily waited to young people, which normal bias favors Democrats especially this year.”
