Top Ten Videos to watch

47th NAACP Image Awards Presented By TV One - Press Room
A Man Operating A Tv Camera
Maurice White
'News One Now' With Roland Martin Taping
Bill Cosby
Activists In Los Angeles Gather To Burn Likenesses Of The Confederate Flag
Flint Firebirds V Windsor Spitfires
CBC Message To America: Rep. Conyers Addresses The Damage Inflicted On Our Communities By Poverty, Mass Incarceration And Lack Of Economic Development
Iowa Caucus Ted Cruz
NewsOne Now NAACP Image Awards Preview
Student sitting at a desk in a classroom
Slavery Stock image
The 16th Annual Wall Street Project Gala Fundraising Reception
Ava DuVernay
Roland Martin Blasts Stacey Dash For Comments About BET, Black Networks
President Obama Delivers State Of The Union Address At U.S. Capitol
Ava DuVernay
2016 North American International Auto Show
Democratic National Committee Presidential Primary Debate
88th Oscars Nominations Announcement
Democratic debate
Dream Speech
GOP Presidential Candidates Debate In Charleston
US President Barack Obama speaks on the
2011 Winter TCA Tour - Day 5
LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 18, 2015: Two wooden stand-in Oscar statuettes are ready to be taken on
Woman Holding Dollars - Isolated
Leave a comment


Could the polls be wrong? That’s a question I’ve been asked often in recent months, mostly by Democrats hoping that the dire forecasts produced here and elsewhere turn out to be too pessimistic. The short answer is of course they can. In an era of low response rates, imperfect sample coverage and a host of new polling technologies, nothing is certain. At this hour however, the most likely range of that error lies somewhere between a Democratic defeat comparable to 1994 and something much more severe.

Before we review our final round of polling forecasts based on whatever final polls straggle in this morning, let’s take a few minutes to ponder that question a little more carefully. Every polling average on HuffPost Pollster and our Election Dashboard, and every probability we have calculated on the outcome, rests on the assumption that, as a whole, the underlying polling is statistically unbiased.

Are pre-election polls often widely variable? Yes, but averages and the “trend estimate” numbers we publish assume that most of the variation, whether based the errors involved in measuring a sample rather than the entire population, or based on subjective survey design decisions that pollsters make, from question wording to identifying the likely electorate, is random. If we average out the various polls, we minimize that random error and get a more accurate forecast. At least that’s the operating assumption.

Polling aggregators — from Bill Schneider and his CNN “poll of polls” in the 1990s to the RealClearPolitics averages, to sites like and FiveThirtyEight — have succeeded because on the whole, pre-election polls over the last 15 to 20 years have been largely unbiased. If they have remained statistically neutral in recent weeks, then the estimates we have produced will be reasonably accurate.

Read more at HuffingtonPost


Latest Midterm Election Results

Share this post on Facebook! CLICK HERE:

Enhanced by Zemanta

Also On News One: