New Jersey Special Election Could Thin GOP’s House Majority
New Jersey Special Election Could Further Thin GOP’s Narrow House Majority
A special election is underway in New Jersey to determine who will serve the remainder of Mikie Sherrill’s term, who vacated her House seat after winning New Jersey’s gubernatorial race. The outcome of the race could significantly affect the GOP’s ability to advance its legislative priorities in Congress.
According to CNN, the race is between Democrat Analilia Mejia, a self-described progressive, and Republican Joe Hathaway. Mejia, a former head of the Working Families Alliance, was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Mejia has largely focused her campaign on the economic issues facing voters.
“I think on Thursday voters know they have a decision – an easy decision – to make,” Mejia told CNN. “Their pocketbook, the prices at the gas pump, the prices at the grocery store, are informing people about just how dangerous it is to send someone else to do Donald Trump’s bidding in Congress.”
Mejia hasn’t shied away from criticizing President Donald Trump, framing the race as a battle for democracy. Mejia has been particularly critical of Trump’s decision to pardon the people who were arrested and charged for their crimes related to the Jan. 6 Capitol Riot.
Democrats have consistently overperformed in special elections throughout President Donald Trump’s second term. Trump’s approval ratings are underwater, and the GOP’s refusal to break from Trump is having real consequences for the Party. While it was widely expected that Democrats would retake the House in the upcoming midterm elections, it’s looking increasingly likely that they could take the Senate as well.
Hathaway seems to be reading the moment and has campaigned as a self-described “commonsense, independent” willing to go against the Republican Party. He has worked to endear himself to Democratic voters who might find Mejia to be too far to the left.
“For a lot of those Democrats out there, I say it kind of tongue-in-cheek, but I mean it too: They have an opportunity here,” Hathaway told CNN. “If they’re really concerned about Analilia, there’s an opportunity to test drive a Republican for six months.”
According to AP, New Jersey’s 11th District historically leans Democratic. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the district by 9 percentage points in the 2024 election, and the district has 65,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.
A Mejia win could potentially make these next eight months a struggle for House Speaker Mike Johnson. If Mejia wins, Johnson would only be able to lose one vote to pass party-line legislation. The idea that Johnson would be able to get the GOP to work in lockstep seems incredibly unlikely, given that the Party has only become more dysfunctional during Trump’s second term.
Before Trump’s second term, discharge petitions were an incredibly rare procedural move to force the House to vote on an issue that the House Speaker refuses to bring to the floor. There have been several filed during Johnson’s time as House Speaker, ranging from a vote to release the Epstein Files to one filed this week that seeks to maintain temporary protections for Haitian migrants.
No matter who wins, the two will remain on the campaign trail after the election, as they are both running in the June primaries ahead of the November midterms for a full two-year term starting next year.
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