New polling data found that not only would Donald Trump defeat Joe Biden if a presidential election was held today but he would also do so while enjoying a level of support from Black voters in crucial battleground states previously “unseen” by a Republican candidate seeking the White House.
The results of polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College found that Biden is trailing Trump in swing states expected to play outsized roles in the 2024 election, including some that previously helped secure Biden’s victory in 2020.
Of those states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – just one shows Biden beating Trump by a slim margin.
On a more granular level, there are more Black voters from those states – 22% of them – supporting a Republican presidential candidate than ever previously recorded, the New York Times reported:
Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
While polling is far from definitive, it can provide an indication of trends.
In recent months, unsubstantiated reports have increased suggesting more Black voters are supporting Trump.
Just last week, Republican Florida Rep. Bryon Donalds said without proof that “more Black Americans say we gotta have Trump back.”
Also last weekend, former NFL players and twin brothers Maurkice and Mike Pouncey were photographed smiling at Mar-a-Lago “to see Trump.”
Trump also said he thought his mugshot from his indictment in Georgia for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election in Fulton County may have “quadrupled” his support among Black voters – a racist narrative first pushed by conservatives who think Black people love criminality and commiserate with Trump out of shared victimization from an unfair criminal justice system.
A poll in September found that Biden was losing ground with Black voters, his most loyal base of voters, while the nation’s overall electorate was seemingly split between the incumbent and Trump – data that doesn’t bode well for Biden.
The data from CNN’s poll are largely consistent with polling conducted over the last year by the ongoing New York Times and Siena College, which previously found that “Biden is underperforming among nonwhite voters.”
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